Zillow has released its latest 12-month home price forecast, and the findings suggest a significant divergence in the U.S. housing market. While the national outlook remains modest, projecting a slight rise of +1.5% between October 2025 and October 2026, the real story lies in the dramatic regional flip: the former growth darlings of the Sun Belt are cooling off, while the Northeast and Midwest are heating up.
This shift marks a critical change for buyers, sellers, and investors, moving the market from a widespread boom to a highly localized, uneven recovery.
National Picture: Muted Growth, Massive Volatility
Zillow's latest national forecast of +1.5% appreciation represents an attempt to stabilize expectations after a highly turbulent year that saw projections swing wildly (from an initial +2.6% to a low of -1.7% earlier in 2025).
However, many major analysts agree that while a full-scale national crash is unlikely, price gains will be significantly slower and more uneven than in the pandemic era.
- Fannie Mae and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) generally support this outlook, forecasting moderate national growth in the 2% to 4% range for 2026, primarily supported by persistent inventory shortages and expected gradual easing of mortgage rates (potentially hovering around 6.0%)
The key takeaway is that the national average is now meaningless; real estate success will be defined by local market performance.
Regional Winners: The North Awakens
The most surprising feature of Zillow’s revised forecast is the expected resurgence of markets traditionally seen as "colder" or more stable. These regions are experiencing a surge in buyer competition, driven by low existing inventory and relatively tight land-use restrictions that limit new construction, pushing prices up
Top 5 Predicted Growth Metros (October 2025 – October 2026):
- Atlantic City, NJ → +5.3%
- Rockford, IL → +4.8%
- Concord, NH → +4.6%
- Knoxville, TN → +4.3%
- Saginaw, MI → +4.3%
Markets like Hartford, CT (+3.9%) and New Haven, CT (+4.0%) also feature prominently. According to Zillow Research, these Northeast markets currently show a home shopper ratio greater than 10-to-1 (shoppers to listings), indicating fierce bidding wars [Source 1.8].
Regional Losers: Oversupply Hits the Sun Belt
In sharp contrast, many Sun Belt areas, which saw explosive growth between 2021 and 2023, are now facing the opposite problem: oversupply and demand burnout.
These markets, particularly in the Southwest, have seen a massive influx of new home construction in recent years. While new buildings are often a good sign, an accelerated pace combined with higher mortgage rates has led to cooling prices and a shift to a buyer's market in many cities.
The result is a wave of predicted price declines, especially across Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida.
Top 5 Predicted Decline Metros (October 2025 – October 2026):
- Houma, LA → -7.8%
- Lake Charles, LA → -7.3%
- New Orleans, LA → -4.7%
- Shreveport, LA → -4.3%
- Lafayette, LA → -4.2%
Notable high-profile markets on the decline list include Austin, TX (-2.6%) and Punta Gorda, FL (-2.7%), confirming that the momentum has definitively shifted away from coastal and high-growth southern markets.
Strategic Exit: Is Sale-Leaseback Right for You?
If you currently own a property in a market forecast for a decline (such as New Orleans, Austin, or Houma), or if you are looking to liquidate your assets and reduce your exposure to this volatile real estate market, a traditional sale can feel risky and slow.
In this environment, Sell2Rent is emerging as a strategic alternative for homeowners.
The Sale-Leaseback Advantage
A sale-leaseback allows you to sell your property to an investor for cash while simultaneously signing a long-term lease to continue living there as a renter.
- Unlock Equity, Stay Put: You gain immediate access to the cash from your home equity without the disruption of moving.
- Reduce Volatility Risk: By selling, you eliminate the risk associated with Zillow's forecast of declining values in your specific metro.
- Sell As-Is: Many sale-leaseback platforms simplify the process, allowing you to sell your property quickly, often as-is, bypassing the costs and hassle of repairs and staging
Want to learn more about how Sell2Rent works? Click here to unlock an opportunity.
The Fast Track Option: Sell2Rent for Quick Closings
If you are a homeowner considering selling and need a quick, simplified, and hassle-free solution that removes the uncertainty of the traditional market, the sale-leaseback model is worth exploring.
Unlike a typical traditional sale that can drag on for 30 to 60 days with staging, repairs, and financing contingencies, a platform like Sell2Rent offers several advantages for sellers facing market volatility:
- Fast Offers and Closing: You can typically receive an estimated offer within 24-48 hours, and while the final closing timeline varies, the process is streamlined to avoid the lengthy complications of buyer financing and contingencies common in the volatile markets listed above.
- No Hassle: You sell the property "as-is," eliminating the time and expense of repairs and home showings.
- No Moving Required (If You Choose): The core benefit is the ability to sell and stay, allowing you to cash out your equity and become a renter, all without the financial burden or logistical nightmare of moving out, which is a key priority for many homeowners in transition.
While you do forfeit future potential appreciation, the process offers a guaranteed, efficient exit strategy when market forecasts point downward. To learn more about how the sale-leaseback process works and to determine if it aligns with your financial goals in today's shifting market, exploring options like Sell2Rent is a smart next step. If you are ready to explore you options, click the link below to talk to an advisor at no cost.
Subscribe to the Real Estate Digest. Weekly newsletter.
By submitting this form you are accepting our Privacy Policy, as well as our Disclaimers and Terms of Use.
